Let me at least clarify before you just stop reading. The White Sox added Lance Lynn and Liam Hendriks this offseason, both of whom finished top 10 in the AL Cy Young voting in 2020. Cool, right? There is a 3rd starter and a top level closer on the pitching staff. So where does that leave the rotation going into Spring Training? Your locks for the starters are Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, and Lance Lynn. Your other guys fighting for a rotation spot are Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, Reynaldo Lopez, and yes, Carlos Rodon. If you look at the rotation the 4 and 5 spot are definitely up for grabs, most believing Dylan Cease is a lock at 4. So the 5 spot is going up for grabs between Michael Kopech, who opted out of 2020 to continue recovering from Tommy John and be with family. Reynaldo Lopez, who had an abysmal 2020 and was left off the postseason roster. Then there is Carlos Rodon, the former #3 overall pick in 2014, who has had shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery in the last 3 years. We last saw Rodon in a relief appearance in Game 3 of the Wild Card round against Oakland. It was as the twitter hashtag puts it “ungood”. Rodon faced 3 batters, walking 2 and giving up 1 hit allowing 2 ER in the process. His ERA for his postseason career, is an incredible infinity. To be fair, Rodon has never been a reliever in his career, and was put in a dicey situation due to the lack of pitchers on the roster that are made for that spot. However, being a Major League pitcher, you have to step up.

Ok, so let’s not talk about 2020 anymore, lets look at the overall career numbers, damn that includes 2020, oh well. Rodon is a career WAR of 6.5, 29-33 with a 4.14 ERA. That is not good, not terrible, but meh/bad. His best season was his rookie season in 2015, going 9-6 with a 3.75 ERA starting 23 games. He pitched 139.1 innings, had 71 walks and 139 strikeouts. Remember, this blog isn’t one of those analytical nerd blogs, no offense to the other people that understand analytics and think they mean something, but I don’t. I love the eye test and I love the old school stats I grew up with. Carlos Rodon is a former #3 overall pick, that means he is supposed to be good, right? Let’s look at some #3 overall picks that I googled: Mike Zunino, Manny Machado, Trevor Bauer, Mike Lieberthal, Troy Glaus, Dustin Hermanson, Evan Longoria, Eric Hosmer, and White Sox legend and perfect game pitcher, Philip Humber. I would say that group is good to pretty good. Is Carlos Rodon in that company this stage in his career? No. Can he be? Sure.

Since his rookie year, Rodon’s numbers have been consistent, in the two seasons he has been healthy enough to be a full time starter. The most IP he has had in his career was 2016 when he threw 165. That is a problem with availability. He has had two shoulder surgeries and Tommy John, with Ethan Katz this Spring Training showing Rodon how he is using the lower half of his body wrong, it could help the arm angle and put less stress on that shoulder. The word coming out of Spring Training is Kopech will start either in the bullpen or in AAA to get his arm ready, leaving the 5th rotation spot up to Reynaldo Lopez or Carlos Rodon. Rodon was told he would be coming back as a starter, but management can make as many promises as they want, but if you don’t meet your end of the bargain, why should they hold up their promise?

I have been a big Carlos Rodon fan since he joined the team, when I had to go to Target Field to see White Sox games while living in Minnesota, I would hope he was pitching. I am truly rooting for him to be a swing guy who can hold that 5th spot until Kopech is ready, and then be a long reliever or spot starter on a contending team, and allow them to have a chance to win. The history doesn’t show that he will be able to do that, but why not start a new narrative? He has the tools, and Don Cooper is no longer his pitching coach. Nothing against Don Cooper, he did some wonderful things, but not seeing what the new coaches are already seeing through 5 years is a big red flag. If Ethan Katz is as impressive as he sounds, it could be huge for Rodon/Lopez to get themselves back on track. The good news is, that Rodon isn’t going to be in your top 3, so you have some wiggle room. You still need a steadying presence in the back of your rotation. With Cease and Rodon/Lopez being those guys, it is worrisome as a fan, but if they can unlock something that will help long term, I am all for it.

Until we see what Michael Kopech fully has and stays healthy, its the Rodon show in my opinion over Reynaldo Lopez. Time will tell, but Rodon, until he leaves the organization, is still MY ace. “So sit back, relax, and strap it down” – Ken “Hawk” Harrelson.