We are currently two days away from the White Sox taking on the Houston Astros in the ALDS. Many analysts, journalists, and bloggers are on the side of the White Sox winning this series. Not all, but quite a few. There also appears to be a sense of the Astros being the only team standing in the way of a White Sox World Series victory, among those same opinions. Which is just completely bonkers, seeing where the White Sox were just two years ago. Look, I love this team, a gigantic chunk of my time and attention goes into White Sox baseball. Its not going to be as easy as a lot think it is. This team hasn’t “clicked” all at the same time, other than against the Cubs. Now the White Sox had a 10395329 game lead in the AL Central for about 99.9% of the season, so it wasn’t necessary to be clicking at all times. The players needed rest, other guys were given opportunities to get Major League innings and AB’s. Which is all well and good, but now comes the real difficult work. Which is where the headline of this blog comes in. 2B Cesar Hernandez and P Michael Kopech, are the two keys to the White Sox run in the playoffs. We know the big names the Sox will rely on. Luis Robert, Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Craig Kimbrel. Liam Hendriks, and WS MVP favorite Leury Garcia. So enter in the fillers, Gavin Sheets, Adam Engel, Brian Goodwin, Billy Hamilton, Ryan Tepera, Aaron Bummer, Dylan Cease, Dallas Keuchel, Andrew Vaughn, Cesar Hernandez, and Michael Kopech. Now we won’t know the official roster for the ALDS until Thursday morning at the 10 AM deadline, but those are the most notable names to pick from. So let’s take a dive into my bold claim:

Let’s start with future superstar Michael Kopech, who is currently acting as a 6th/7th inning reliever, and spot starter. His role in the playoffs is more than likely going to be “bridge guy” or the same role he has had in the regular season. Quite a few fans are hoping for a Rodon/Kopech bridge type game, or similarly with Dylan Cease, pair him with Kopech. I think both ideas are fantastic, however he is probably not going to pitch in back to back games. If he does, I will be surprised. I see the bullpen being a very short leash bullpen, especially if they are leading after 6 innings. You will definitely see Tepera/Bummer, Kimbrel, and Hendriks as the 7-8-9th inning guys, with Kopech sprinkled in somewhere. Pending how healthy Carlos Rodon is going into the ALDS, and what his limit is, we could see Michael Kopech be the bridge guy to the bullpen in that game. Depending on how many innings they expect, or frankly get from Rodon, will determine if Kopech needs to throw multiple or not. The other dynamic of a Cease/Kopech piggy back, is they are eerily similar pitchers with high velocity fastballs, and good breaking stuff, with Cease’s breaking stuff being better at this point in their careers. I don’t see them as a tandem. Where Kopech slots in will depend on how the other SP’s handle their starts. Whether they are having high pitch counts, giving up runs/hits at a high clip, or any other circumstances, will determine Kopech’s usage. The reason he is the X factor for the pitching staff, is because of his ability to be used in different spots. We could be in for a surprise and they start him, which has a ridiculously low chance of happening, but you never know that Tony La Russa wants to do. Also, if Kopech’s fastball life is there, and he has control of his slider, its going to be a gigantic weapon in the postseason. Only time will tell how his usage is planned, and I’m sure situational game plans can change.

Now let’s talk about something volatile when it comes to the White Sox, and that is the 2B position. We have seen Cesar Hernandez get a bulk of the starts there, with Leury Garcia also seeing time there. Several, and I mean SEVERAL individuals on twitter have stated they would prefer Leury Garcia at 2B to Cesar Hernandez, and I highly disagree. Leury has been hitting the ball very well over the last month +, but he has had some adventures defensively in the infield and outfield lately. Cesar Hernandez had a pretty bad stretch of a few games defensively, and everyone gave up on him. He won a Gold Glove at 2B in 2020, and this season, has been statistically worse than last year, obviously. He posted a .981 fielding percentage in 2020, and this season with the White Sox in 53 games at 2B, he has a .976 fielding percentage. However, his defense is not what people are concerned about. They want his bat to come alive. With Cleveland, he was a 1.2 WAR player, but since he was traded to the White Sox he is a -0.8 WAR player, with the bat. He had a .738 OPS with Cleveland and a .608 OPS with the White Sox in 2021. His power hasn’t been there, but he is still getting on base slightly more than he was with Cleveland (.307/.309). The batting average is virtually the same as its been as well. The issue is the XBH are non-existent, which doesn’t make sense to gripe about seeing as Nick Madrigal didn’t hit for extra bases very often, either. Its also tough to compare, as he played 96 games with Cleveland, and only 53 with the White Sox. Its also very difficult to keep up such a healthy clip over 162 games. The number that is going to really jump out is the OPS+ down 31 points since joining the White Sox.

Look, is Cesar performing as a superstar? Absolutely not. Is he a serviceable 9 hitter that plays above average defense? YES. That was what he was brought in to do. Although he was hitting 2nd, for what felt like, 9 months, but that wasn’t his fault. I think he is going to be a key in the playoffs, rolling over the lineup back to TA, Luis/Yoan, and Jose Abreu. He can get on base, and he can play defense, at a decent clip. Which is why he is the position player X factor for the postseason. Look, you don’t have to listen to me, or hell even read what I write, but I have a gut feeling and I wanted to write it out. If the White Sox get past the Astros, its because things went right. They will need things to go right 11 times, and have them go wrong, very, very, very, very, sparingly. Here’s to October baseball, and here’s to the Chicago White Sox!

Sam

P.S. If Cesar and Kopech kiss, the White Sox win it all by default. (That was for Roxy, who ruined my article and made me do real writing and research.)